{
  "recording_id": 6203,
  "title": "WW3 prep",
  "url": "https://openvibe.video/v/6203",
  "transcript": [
    {
      "start": 0.32,
      "end": 2.56,
      "text": "or twenty-eight, how long before impact?"
    },
    {
      "start": 4.16,
      "end": 8.32,
      "text": "Yeah, the so yeah, maybe just just went time on open five."
    },
    {
      "start": 9.84,
      "end": 16,
      "text": "Yes, there's there there's currently people have tested NVIDIA GPUs."
    },
    {
      "start": 16.08,
      "end": 30,
      "text": "So there's a satellite with an NVIDIA GPU up there that relaunched and and there's satellite in the recent release with a satellite in the recent release with a satellite and these are and bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum bum"
    },
    {
      "start": 60.16,
      "end": 70.8,
      "text": "Scale, you really need to go to space because there just isn't enough power in on the ground to realistically get to those levels per year."
    },
    {
      "start": 71.44,
      "end": 80.08,
      "text": "Just as a frame of reference, the power output, the average power average power consumption in the United States is just over 500 gigawatts."
    },
    {
      "start": 81.68,
      "end": 86.48,
      "text": "So if you look, if you if you know the the the the peak power in the United States is roughly 1."
    },
    {
      "start": 86.72,
      "end": 89.84,
      "text": "2 terawatts, but average power consumption."
    },
    {
      "start": 90.08,
      "end": 91.68,
      "text": "Is just over 500 gigawatts."
    },
    {
      "start": 91.92,
      "end": 104.32,
      "text": "So you can really see that like if if you're doing, say, 200 gigawatts a year of AI, that would be like doing a 40% increase in the entire US power grid every year."
    },
    {
      "start": 105.12,
      "end": 107.36,
      "text": "Which is simply not feasible."
    },
    {
      "start": 109.68,
      "end": 119.76,
      "text": "And when you take solar panels and you and you put them in space, because it's essentially it's always sunny in space, and the solar panels can always face the sun directly."
    },
    {
      "start": 120.32,
      "end": 122.56,
      "text": "They're not off angle to the sun."
    },
    {
      "start": 126.16,
      "end": 130.32,
      "text": "And you don't have atmospheric attenuation of solar power."
    },
    {
      "start": 130.72,
      "end": 134.16,
      "text": "So you get 30% more solar power in space."
    },
    {
      "start": 134.24,
      "end": 135.12,
      "text": "It's sunny all the time."
    },
    {
      "start": 135.2,
      "end": 136.4,
      "text": "There's no seasonality."
    },
    {
      "start": 136.8,
      "end": 142.32,
      "text": "You don't really need you can have you can get away with a very tiny battery pack because you don't need to last through the night."
    },
    {
      "start": 143.52,
      "end": 149.12,
      "text": "The cost of of intelligence in space is dramatically less than the ground."
    },
    {
      "start": 149.2,
      "end": 149.84,
      "text": "Once you have"
    },
    {
      "start": 150.32,
      "end": 152.48,
      "text": "A low cost per ton to orbit."
    },
    {
      "start": 152.72,
      "end": 163.84,
      "text": "So Starship, because it will be the first fully reusable rocket, will lower the cost of access to space by a factor of a hundred, or maybe more."
    },
    {
      "start": 164.32,
      "end": 177.44,
      "text": "I I I think actually, in the limit, the w I mean maybe we're within the same probably two or three years, the cost of a ton to orbit will be less than the cost of air freight from California to Australia."
    },
    {
      "start": 177.68,
      "end": 178.64,
      "text": "From California to Australia."
    },
    {
      "start": 180.4,
      "end": 187.76,
      "text": "From that 2010, the cost to get to orbit was $18,500 a kilogram."
    },
    {
      "start": 188.24,
      "end": 190.64,
      "text": "That was because you use a rocket one time."
    },
    {
      "start": 191.04,
      "end": 200.96,
      "text": "And then when we came up with a rocket Falcon 9, you could use over and over again, it became, I think it was $2,500, and then it went to $1,500."
    },
    {
      "start": 201.28,
      "end": 204.24,
      "text": "And now it's going to go to $100 or $15 or $15?"
    },
    {
      "start": 204.88,
      "end": 208.72,
      "text": "I think we'd get to under $100 a kilogram to orbit."
    },
    {
      "start": 210,
      "end": 217.92,
      "text": "So that i it's it's important to just appreciate how profound full reusability is."
    },
    {
      "start": 218.24,
      "end": 225.52,
      "text": "so with with Falcon nine, we have I I guess probably around eighty percent of usability."
    },
    {
      "start": 225.6,
      "end": 228,
      "text": "So the booster is you know comes back and lands."
    },
    {
      "start": 228.08,
      "end": 231.28,
      "text": "If you've probably seen the videos of the Falcon I booster landing."
    },
    {
      "start": 231.36,
      "end": 239.84,
      "text": "And then the fairing or NOSCone that contains the satellites, that that th those th those fairing halves land by parachute in the ocean."
    },
    {
      "start": 240.08,
      "end": 241.44,
      "text": "And we refly those."
    },
    {
      "start": 241.68,
      "end": 244.4,
      "text": "But we do not refly the upper stage."
    },
    {
      "start": 244.88,
      "end": 247.92,
      "text": "So we're unable to recover the upper stage of Falcon 9."
    },
    {
      "start": 248,
      "end": 251.68,
      "text": "And the cost of the upper stage is roughly the cost of a medium-sized jet."
    },
    {
      "start": 252,
      "end": 257.04,
      "text": "So that means the the minimum cost per flight from Falcon 9 is a medium-sized jet."
    },
    {
      "start": 257.12,
      "end": 259.36,
      "text": "Now that's still much better than anything else."
    },
    {
      "start": 259.92,
      "end": 266.4,
      "text": "But it's safe to say that there wouldn't be a lot of air travel if every time you flew somewhere you had to throw away a medium-sized jet."
    },
    {
      "start": 268.8,
      "end": 269.76,
      "text": "But like I think I'll drive."
    },
    {
      "start": 275.76,
      "end": 282.32,
      "text": "So so now with with Starship, the the entire system is designed for reusability."
    },
    {
      "start": 282.96,
      "end": 288.72,
      "text": "So the and and and and not just reusability but but extremely rapid reusability."
    },
    {
      "start": 288.96,
      "end": 297.52,
      "text": "The the reason to to to catch the booster and the ship with the tower arms, we call the chocolate the chopsticks, it's kinda like Mr."
    },
    {
      "start": 297.68,
      "end": 299.84,
      "text": "Miyagi and Karate Kid catching the fly."
    },
    {
      "start": 300.16,
      "end": 301.6,
      "text": "It just make it bigger."
    },
    {
      "start": 301.84,
      "end": 308.08,
      "text": "and the the reason for that is is is that the rocket takes off from the launch pad."
    },
    {
      "start": 308.64,
      "end": 318.08,
      "text": "So the rocket is placed on the launch pad by the tower, and then it is caught by those same tower arms and placed back on the launch pad when it returns from space."
    },
    {
      "start": 319.12,
      "end": 323.68,
      "text": "So you don't just have full reusability, you have extremely rapid reusability."
    },
    {
      "start": 323.84,
      "end": 328.48,
      "text": "You really couldn't get faster reusability than landing back where you took off."
    },
    {
      "start": 330.64,
      "end": 341.12,
      "text": "And th thus in principle would would allow us to re-fly the the rocket, the giant booster, the super heavy booster, once an hour."
    },
    {
      "start": 342.32,
      "end": 344.56,
      "text": "10,000 launches a year."
    },
    {
      "start": 346.4,
      "end": 346.88,
      "text": "Yes."
    },
    {
      "start": 347.12,
      "end": 349.28,
      "text": "Probably more in the in the end, but yes."
    },
    {
      "start": 349.52,
      "end": 351.36,
      "text": "more than a launch an hour."
    },
    {
      "start": 352.88,
      "end": 359.28,
      "text": "So when I was young, people would line up to watch every now, very rarely, a rocket."
    },
    {
      "start": 360.08,
      "end": 361.44,
      "text": "We can do one in an hour."
    },
    {
      "start": 361.68,
      "end": 364.08,
      "text": "Doesn't even make newspapers anymore."
    },
    {
      "start": 365.12,
      "end": 365.68,
      "text": "Yes."
    },
    {
      "start": 366.08,
      "end": 370.16,
      "text": "Well, this will be quite in quite I mean, you really want to watch this one."
    },
    {
      "start": 370.32,
      "end": 371.36,
      "text": "This one's cool."
    },
    {
      "start": 371.52,
      "end": 378.64,
      "text": "I mean it's it's the largest flying object ever made."
    },
    {
      "start": 378.8,
      "end": 384.8,
      "text": "And and it's the highest thrust object ever made by humans of any kind whatsoever."
    },
    {
      "start": 385.84,
      "end": 389.84,
      "text": "so yeah, this thing weighs over five thousand tons."
    },
    {
      "start": 390.32,
      "end": 392.4,
      "text": "on lift wolf and it's going straight up."
    },
    {
      "start": 397.28,
      "end": 402.96,
      "text": "and and then and then that then that then that giant thing comes back you know fly comes back from space."
    },
    {
      "start": 404,
      "end": 406.4,
      "text": "You know like five minutes after lift wolf."
    },
    {
      "start": 406.56,
      "end": 409.04,
      "text": "That that booster is coming down one way or another."
    },
    {
      "start": 409.28,
      "end": 413.12,
      "text": "It's gonna you know hopefully in a good way, but it's coming down one way or another."
    },
    {
      "start": 413.2,
      "end": 414.56,
      "text": "So excitement is guaranteed."
    },
    {
      "start": 414.64,
      "end": 419.84,
      "text": "Success success is not always guaranteed, but excitement's always it's very cool when you see it come back."
    },
    {
      "start": 420.24,
      "end": 422.8,
      "text": "And lands in the same place where it took off."
    },
    {
      "start": 423.52,
      "end": 423.76,
      "text": "Yeah."
    },
    {
      "start": 426.8,
      "end": 428.24,
      "text": "It looks crazy."
    },
    {
      "start": 430.72,
      "end": 434.56,
      "text": "when I first proposed this to the team, they looked at me like I was lost my mind."
    },
    {
      "start": 434.64,
      "end": 436.72,
      "text": "But I'm like, look, I think this can be done, you know."
    },
    {
      "start": 436.88,
      "end": 440.8,
      "text": "there's there's nothing that's preventing it from happening from a physics standpoint."
    },
    {
      "start": 441.6,
      "end": 447.6,
      "text": "And and back in the phone, the only thing I can think of that would be slightly better than crashing it with the tower, which would be literally landing."
    },
    {
      "start": 450.24,
      "end": 451.68,
      "text": "Or whatever you think is best for the project."
    },
    {
      "start": 457.52,
      "end": 461.36,
      "text": "So if we if we just catch it with the arms, that's that's a little better."
    },
    {
      "start": 461.44,
      "end": 465.68,
      "text": "because we don't smash the launch pad necessarily if if something goes wrong."
    },
    {
      "start": 465.92,
      "end": 475.6,
      "text": "but it's that's the difference of minutes between catching with the arms, catching with the and simply landing in the actual launch pad it took took off from."
    },
    {
      "start": 475.92,
      "end": 479.84,
      "text": "now the the the much harder than"
    },
    {
      "start": 483.44,
      "end": 491.04,
      "text": "And the you know the the the ship we we've gotta have also we there there's a lot of things that have to be done that have never been never been done before."
    },
    {
      "start": 491.2,
      "end": 495.44,
      "text": "No one has ever made a truly reusable orbital heat shield."
    },
    {
      "start": 495.68,
      "end": 496.72,
      "text": "So the the the the"
    }
  ]
}